By Neena Gowda | Staff Writer
2021 was the 6th Warmest Year on record, and climate change continues to cause more concerns as the Earth’s climate continues to fluctuate. Climate change encompasses a variety of causes and processes that end up affecting our surroundings. On a global scale, climate change will slowly interrupt the daily ecosystems for all living things.
Dr. William C. Porter, Assistant Professor of Atmospheric Dynamics and Modeling in the Environmental Sciences Department, at University of California at Riverside (UCR), is a published author, a researcher with his own team consisting of both graduates and undergraduates, and a lecturer for UCR courses with a Ph.D. in Applied Physics.
“My research focuses on air quality and human health, and includes topics on prescribed fires in California, worsening pollution in the Salton Sea region, and emissions of trace compounds from ocean surfaces. Members of my group study how atmospheric dynamics affect what people breathe, and how we can better understand and predict those impacts and consequences,” says Dr. Porter.
Dr. Porter’s group, named Porter Group at UCR, specializes in research pertaining to air quality and its effects on human health, fire practices in California, atmospheric parameters and organic aerosols, and tropospheric ozone pollution.
When asked about what it means for 2021 to be the 6th warmest year on record, Dr. Porter said, “What this means is that, looking back through all of our observed and reconstructed global temperatures beginning around 1880, the year 2021 ranked #6 overall by NASA. Although the exact ranking may vary a bit between methodologies, scientists and organizations worldwide generally agree with this assessment: although last year was a little cooler than 2020, it was still much warmer than our average over the past 140 years or so.”
“However, just calling 2021 the sixth warmest year is only part of what is remarkable here: all of the past eight years, from 2014 through 2021, together represent the top eight warmest years on record. This is part of a really remarkable and consistent warming trend -- while there are lots of reasons for variability in global temperatures on a year to year basis, the warming that we've seen in recent decades is proving to be remarkably persistent, leading to the regular occurrence of new record-setting years,” Dr. Porter said.
Mr. James Gomez has a Bachelor’s degree in Applied Physics from the University of California, Santa Cruz and is presently in his second year of a Doctoral Degree in Earth and Planetary Sciences at UCR.
Mr. Gomez is currently working on two projects: one on air pollution and its response to increasing carbon dioxide emission, and the second on attempting to improve model accuracy in predicting the amount of sun absorbing aerosols at the different layers of the lower atmosphere.
“When I was an undergraduate, I worked in a geophysics lab. I studied granular physics (how sand particles move and interact), and my thesis was on how we could better predict landslides. While I knew my work was important, I decided that the greatest threat to our planet was climate change. So, I decided to apply my knowledge of particle dynamics to the field of climate research, which is why my research mostly focuses on aerosols (small particles suspended in the atmosphere). I applied to UC Riverside because after conversing with Professor Robert Allen (a world class aerosol dynamics specialist), I knew that his group was the best fit for my interests.”
“The way I see my place in the world is that I was gifted the drive and the intellect to succeed in difficult subjects such as physics, so I need to use my gifts to help others understand the explicit dangers that climate change poses to our society, and the environment. I hope to one day be a professor at a state school and teach courses on climate change and atmospheric physics, as well as continue my research,” Mr. Gomez says.
He continues by saying how his childhood has shaped his concerns for the environment. “I have always been a proponent of protecting our environment. When I was young my parents would always take me to Henry Cowell State Park in Santa Cruz. Henry Cowell is a beautiful forest full of redwoods and a complex, fragile ecosystem. I was always in awe of how clean the air was. I wish that the air could be that clean everywhere. My concern for the environment, especially the environment in California, has only grown after witnessing the wildfires we have had in recent years. When I was younger, there was never a day where I had to shelter from borderline poisonous air. Now, back in my home town of Fremont that's something we have to worry about every summer,” Mr. Gomez said.
When asked about climate change, Mr. Gomez said, “Scientists started keeping records of the Earth's global temperature in 1850. This was a good year to start measuring, as it was around the time of the industrial revolution: a time where industrialization led to increased CO2 emissions globally.”
“The ‘6th Warmest Year on Record’ refers to the fact that 2021 was the 6th warmest year since we recorded the first global annual temperature in 1850. Now, one may argue that because it was only the 6th warmest (and not the warmest) that the climate is cooling. After all, if the global temperature was increasing, shouldn't it do so every year?”
“This would be an incorrect assumption. The Earth's climate goes through varying highs and lows depending on global conditions. For example, 2021 was a La Nina year, the opposite of an El Nino year. La Nina years are characterized by lower ocean temperatures in most parts of the world, making 2021 a cooler year compared to more recent ones. The fact that 2021 was a La Nina year, and still one of the top 10 warmest years on record, is very concerning.”
There are many factors contributing to climate change, and air pollution is one facet. According to Dr. Porter, “‘Pollution’ is a very big umbrella term, and it's worth noting that many of the gases and particles we emit into the atmosphere do not significantly impact the climate on a global. Much of what we try to control with our emissions technology and regulations is designed to protect the health of humans who have to breathe that air, and many of those compounds and particles, fortunately, don't last long in the air before they are lost either to chemistry or gravity.”
“However, some specific chemical compounds, in particular gases like carbon dioxide and methane, can last a very long time -- sometimes decades or even centuries, in fact. These long-lived gases may not be harmful to people directly, but they have the power to absorb energy that would otherwise escape from the Earth back into space, warming up the planet in the process. This is a simplified description of what we often call ‘the greenhouse effect.’”
“This greenhouse effect is not all bad! Without any greenhouse gases, our planet would be a frozen ball of ice. However, if we tip the balance too far in the warming direction, we run the risk of causing serious and nearly irreversible harm to the human and natural systems that have developed under the current climatic normal.”
“However, in general I think that my research has shown me that there are strong connections between human activity, natural cycles and patterns, and the resulting impacts on air quality and human health. Understanding how they all interact requires a lot of work covering many different disciplines and fields of study,” Dr. Porter says. In his own words, Mr. Gomez says, “Global warming, or more accurately climate change, refers to the changing climate on a global scale. Weather, in contrast, is what we are experiencing at a given moment. For example, the weather in Riverside today was cool and sunny. The climate of Riverside would be overall hot and dry in the summer, and mild in the winter. This is known as a Mediterranean climate. Climate is what we expect and weather is what we get.”
“Climate change is essentially the weather that we expect is changing. In the future, we can expect Riverside to get warmer and drier year round. Climate change occurs due to gas particles known as ‘greenhouse gasses’.”
“Greenhouse gasses trap heat that wants to escape from the surface, and sends it back down. Carbon dioxide and methane are two greenhouse gasses that are emitted through everyday human activities, such as driving or livestock farming. Therefore, the more people there are, the more need there is to emit these greenhouse gasses. This is why, in spite of the adaptation of more clean forms of energy, our greenhouse gas output increases each year. We have more mouths to feed, and more people who buy wants and necessities.”
“A common misconception is that the current climate change is due to natural changes, such as a change in the orbital configuration of our planet. While it is true that the orbital configuration can cause the Earth to warm, this is usually over long time periods (such as thousands of years) while the change we are seeing is on the order of decades. Additionally, our current orbital configuration implies that the Earth should be cooling, not warming,” Mr. Gomez said.
As the Earth’s climate measurements continue to be recorded and analyzed, what could happen in the future?
Dr. Porter says, “The Earth has gone through fluctuations in its global temperature throughout its history, in large part due to natural cycles in its orbit, tilt, and rotation relative to the sun. These cycles have set up a kind of ‘normal range’ of conditions that would be observed at any given time.”
“The warming we are seeing now though, in contrast to every period of warming that we can observe through ice cores and other sources of temperature data, cannot be explained by any of those natural cycles, either in terms of timing or rate. It can only be explained by the radiative effects of the massive increase in greenhouse gas concentrations emitted by human activity.”
“We can make a lot of predictions about what this means for us, but one of the scariest part[s] of this kind of warming is that we are completely departing from ‘normal’ conditions, on any time scale. At no point in all of human history has this kind of massive influx of greenhouse gases been delivered into the atmosphere in this way, leading to this rate of rapid warming worldwide unconnected to natural cycles.”
“This is like conducting a giant planetary experiment in which we are in our own petri dish, we don't fully understand the consequences of our large scale perturbations, and we don't have a backup control planet to fall back on if this experiment fails. The dire consequences of failure in this experiment is partly why so many are concerned about this issue,” Dr. Porter says.
“Well, it all depends on how much the global temperature increases,” Mr. Gomez says.
“A net global increase of 1.5 degrees celsius or less would not be ideal, but it would not wreak havoc on our ecosystems or way of life by a catastrophic amount. Any more warming than that would see a large die-off of numerous species that we, directly and indirectly, depend on.”
“For example, coral reefs would die off en masse, leading to a decrease in the amount of sea life that we depend on for food. Additionally, hotter world temperatures would mean higher fire risk here in California, flooding of many coastal properties and cities (including large population centers in New York), and increased global air pollution,” Mr. Gomez says.
Finding the solution to end the global climate crisis is a complicated paradox. According to Dr. Porter, “The clearest fix for the current warming trend, and scientifically the simplest, is to stop burning fossil fuels. While this is scientifically simple, as this would rapidly stop the transfer of carbon from the interior of the Earth into the atmosphere, it's obviously much harder from a political and economic perspective.”
“Our human systems demand energy, and much of that energy demand is met with fossil fuels. The solution for dealing with those political and economic questions is outside of my expertise, but I hope we can find a way to address them quickly,” says Dr. Porter in regards to any hopeful solutions.
With this exponential increase in temperature, what do the next 50-100 years hold for the planet?
“[T]his depends on how much the Earth heats up. Best case scenario, we have a world like the one today with frequent wildfires and droughts in the American West, higher than average global temperatures each year, and more severe storms. However, life now is relatively manageable for most places, climate wise. However, if we fail to curb our emissions, we will continue to see worsening of global quality of life,” says Mr. Gomez. He further explains these consequences and says, “We will see more intense hurricanes, wildfire seasons, droughts, deadly heat waves, and mass extinction of wildlife. Additionally, while food will be easier to grow with smaller increases in global temperature, if the global temperature increases too much, we will find it harder and harder to grow foods that we rely on. This, coupled with an increasing global population, is a recipe for starvation and economic disaster.”
Dr. Porter, having completed research in the fields of Air Pollution & Air Quality, Atmospheric Science, Human Health, and Environmental Justice, includes a response: “The warmer planet we are heading towards in 50-100 years is going to face many of the same climate-related issues we see now, just with more intensity. This includes issues such as drought, wildfires, desertification, and sea level rise.”
“As with any change, there are bound to be global geopolitical winners and losers -- some areas previously just a little too cold to be attractive for development or agriculture may become more viable. However, there is overwhelming evidence that overall the warming we expect will be a net negative for human health and stability worldwide.”
“I hope statistics like this one (sixth warmest year on record) inspires students and communities to think more about environmental sciences, and perhaps even to go beyond the sound bites and debates and study the human and natural systems underlying this remarkable observed trend. We need more scientists, more engineers, more educated, thoughtful people who recognize the significance of our own collective actions within this incredible interconnected Earth system upon which we all depend,” Dr. Porter said.
“Climate change is a very frightening concept. The world that we comfortably live in right now will become more and more uncomfortable the longer that humankind takes to cut its greenhouse gas emissions. Recent world events should cause one to be pessimistic about our prospects, but do not lose hope quite yet. Some of the largest offshore wind farms ever proposed have been approved for construction off both the east and west coast of the United States. Cars are becoming more fuel-efficient as technology improves. Meat alternatives such as beyond and impossible meats have seen growing markets.”
“As the country becomes more educated, there are more individuals who know climate change is a threat. The climate will only get worse each year, but if we all work together, we can hopefully stop it short of becoming catastrophic. Maybe then our grandchildren can live in a world as stable and healthy as our grandparents lived in,” Mr. Gomez said.
As a high school student at Redlands High School, how can we stay involved and do our share in reducing negative impacts on the planet?
Regardless of age, Mr. Gomez says, “It is very difficult for one person to have an effect on the Earth's climate, unless you are a millionaire or powerful politician. However, there are still a few actions one can take. The most important, if you are of voting age, is to vote for people in local, state, and federal elections who believe in climate change and wish to combat it. You can also give money to the campaigns of politicians in other states to help them win too. If you are not yet of voting age, there are still actions you can take. You can organize protests, cut back on your consumption of red meat/dairy, and choose more fuel efficient and/or electric vehicles to drive.”
“While these actions taken by a single individual will have little impact, if everyone were to take these actions the climate crisis would be much less urgent. The biggest burden for fighting the climate crisis lands on large corporations and the government, however. These are the entities that cause a majority of greenhouse gas emissions, not you. However, these entities will not change their bad habits unless you give them a reason too! That's why boycotts, protests, and elections are the most effective forms of climate mitigation an individual can participate in,” Mr. Gomez said.